Sunday, February 10, 2013

Top Financial Risks in 2012 Revisited

The top financial risks, as perceived by analysts (polled by Reuters) for the fourth quarter of 2012 were:
  • The fiscal cliff
  • Low growth and unemployment
  • The possibility of a Greek exit from the EU
  • The Euro Zone debt crisis
Going forward in 2013, nothing much seems to have changed. These factors are still very much in contention for potential blow-ups, although they are currently being managed (or pushed out) by politicians. In order to eliminate the risks significantly, more meaningful action will be required.

The only variable, which is a little more of an enigma than the other risks, is the possibility of Greece exiting the EU. Exactly the extent of this risk escapes quantification. An exit from the EU by Greece may in fact improve the position of that country and prospects for Europe in general. Uncertainty may prevail for a short period, as  politicians come to grips with the fact that the world will not end.

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